Global oil demand: expected to reach 1.1 mb/d in 2024

Global oil demand is forecasted to rise to 101.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2023, an increase of 2.3 mb/d.

However, this growth masks the effect of a "worsening" macroeconomic climate. The forecast for global oil demand in the fourth quarter of 2023 has been revised downward by 400,000 barrels per day, with Europe accounting for more than half of this reduction.

The IEA also expects this slowdown to continue in 2024, with global growth halved to 1.1 mb/d.

Decline in oil shipments in november leads to a 17% drop in revenues

Factors such as increased energy efficiency and the expansion of electric vehicles are contributing to the slowdown in demand.

On the supply side, US oil production continues to exceed expectations, reaching over 20 mb/d. This, along with record production in Brazil and Guyana and increased Iranian exports, will bring global supply to 101.9 mb/d in 2023, an increase of 1.8 mb/d.

Non-OPEC+ countries will lead the increase in 2024, with a forecasted rise of 1.2 mb/d, despite voluntary cuts by OPEC+. The price of Russian exported oil dropped sharply in November, with Urals crude hitting the $60 per barrel cap on December 6.

In November, falling prices and a reduction in oil shipments by 200,000 barrels per day led to a 17% decrease in monthly revenues from crude and product exports, down to $15.2 billion, the lowest level since July 2023. Crude revenues experienced a larger contraction compared to product revenues.

Refining margins in Europe and Singapore slightly improved in November, while those on the US Gulf Coast continued to underperform for the third consecutive month due to falling diesel and gasoline prices.

Oil stocks decrease by 19.6 Million barrels in october

Global oil flows in the fourth quarter of 2023 will be significantly weaker than expected, due to more extensive and prolonged refinery turnarounds, dropping by 3.6 mb/d in October and slowly recovering to peak at 84.2 mb/d in December 2023.

Global oil inventories saw a decrease of 19.6 million barrels in October. While crude stocks remained stable, product inventories fell for the first time in four months, reversing the trend seen in the third quarter of 2023.

ICE Brent futures continued to decline in November, losing $5 per barrel. Increased US oil exports and weak global demand growth have put pressure on crude prices. According to the IEA, increased energy efficiency and the expansion of electric vehicles are contributing to the slowdown in global oil demand.